Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PENG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($18.90) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$56.94 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.8%/yr | 12.5% | $10.33 |
| Base case | 4.8%/yr | 11.5% | $13.97 |
| Optimistic | 7.8%/yr | 10.5% | $18.90 |
Current Price
$56.94
Market-Implied Growth
+37.3%/yr
vs +4.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$13.97
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PENG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $74.8M · 0.05B shares · net debt $216.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$13.97
-75.5% vs $56.94
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $56.94; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $16.94 | $18.02 | $19.26 | $20.69 | $22.35 |
| 10.5% | $14.54 | $15.36 | $16.28 | $17.33 | $18.53 |
| 11.5% | $12.62 | $13.26 | $13.97 | $14.77 | $15.66 |
| 12.5% | $11.05 | $11.56 | $12.12 | $12.74 | $13.43 |
| 13.5% | $9.74 | $10.16 | $10.61 | $11.11 | $11.65 |
