TGM's two-stage DCF values Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) between $192.92 and $360.10 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $262.96. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$148.28 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $192.92 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $262.96 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $360.10 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 16, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $440.47 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$148.28
Market-Implied Growth
+4.0%/yr
vs +22.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$192.92 – $360.10
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PCTY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $354.7M · 0.05B shares · net cash $190.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$262.96
+77.3% vs $148.28
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $148.28; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $345 | $389 | $448 | $530 | $654 |
| 6.5% | $273 | $299 | $332 | $375 | $431 |
| 7.5% | $225 | $242 | $263 | $288 | $320 |
| 8.5% | $191 | $203 | $217 | $234 | $254 |
| 9.5% | $165 | $174 | $184 | $196 | $210 |
