Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PCRX
Even the conservative scenario ($60.57) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$24.74 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -16.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.2%/yr | 8.5% | $60.57 |
| Base case | 8.2%/yr | 7.5% | $85.17 |
| Optimistic | 11.2%/yr | 6.5% | $124.50 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $180.28 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$24.74
Market-Implied Growth
-16.0%/yr
vs +16.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$85.17
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PCRX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $138.1M · 0.04B shares · net debt $259.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$85.17
+244.3% vs $24.74
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $24.74; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $113 | $128 | $148 | $176 | $218 |
| 6.5% | $88.41 | $97.45 | $109 | $123 | $143 |
| 7.5% | $72.09 | $78.04 | $85.17 | $93.87 | $105 |
| 8.5% | $60.46 | $64.63 | $69.48 | $75.21 | $82.08 |
| 9.5% | $51.75 | $54.81 | $58.29 | $62.31 | $66.99 |
