A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Phibro Animal Health Corporation (PAHC) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$36.79 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.8%/yr | 8.5% | N/A |
| Base case | 12.8%/yr | 7.5% | $3.63 |
| Optimistic | 15.8%/yr | 6.5% | $12.32 |
Current Price
$36.79
Market-Implied Growth
+37.6%/yr
vs +12.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PAHC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $25.8M · 0.04B shares · net debt $671.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$3.63
-90.1% vs $36.79
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $36.79; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $9.86 | $13.24 | $17.74 | $24.04 | $33.48 |
| 6.5% | $4.36 | $6.39 | $8.92 | $12.17 | $16.50 |
| 7.5% | $0.71 | $2.04 | $3.63 | $5.58 | $8.02 |
| 8.5% | N/A | N/A | $0.12 | $1.40 | $2.94 |
| 9.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
