Why we don't show a single “fair value” for OSUR
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor OraSure Technologies, Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.1% | $5.02 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.1% | $5.49 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.1% | $6.37 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $0.44 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$3.77
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$5.49
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OSUR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $11.8M · 0.07B shares · net cash $199.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$5.49
+45.7% vs $3.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $3.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $6.06 | $6.31 | $6.62 | $7.00 | $7.49 |
| 8.1% | $5.58 | $5.75 | $5.96 | $6.20 | $6.50 |
| 9.1% | $5.22 | $5.35 | $5.49 | $5.66 | $5.86 |
| 10.1% | $4.95 | $5.05 | $5.15 | $5.27 | $5.41 |
| 11.1% | $4.74 | $4.81 | $4.89 | $4.98 | $5.08 |