TGM's two-stage DCF values O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) between $39.58 and $83.94 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $56.65. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$92.09 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.1%/yr | 8.5% | $39.58 |
| Base case | 8.1%/yr | 7.5% | $56.65 |
| Optimistic | 11.1%/yr | 6.5% | $83.94 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $95.10 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$92.09
Market-Implied Growth
+18.8%/yr
vs -3.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$39.58 – $83.94
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ORLY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0B · 0.83B shares · net debt $5.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$56.65
-38.5% vs $92.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $92.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $75.90 | $86.34 | $100 | $120 | $149 |
| 6.5% | $58.90 | $65.17 | $72.99 | $83.05 | $96.44 |
| 7.5% | $47.58 | $51.71 | $56.65 | $62.69 | $70.23 |
| 8.5% | $39.51 | $42.40 | $45.77 | $49.74 | $54.51 |
| 9.5% | $33.47 | $35.59 | $38.01 | $40.80 | $44.04 |
