TGM's two-stage DCF values OptimizeRx Corp. (OPRX) between $7.10 and $12.31 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $9.24. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$8.85 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.8%/yr | 10.5% | $7.10 |
| Base case | 13.8%/yr | 9.5% | $9.24 |
| Optimistic | 16.8%/yr | 8.5% | $12.31 |
Current Price
$8.85
Market-Implied Growth
+12.7%/yr
vs +13.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7.10 – $12.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OPRX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.6M · 0.02B shares · net debt $2.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.24
+4.4% vs $8.85
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.85; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $11.29 | $12.17 | $13.23 | $14.53 | $16.14 |
| 8.5% | $9.56 | $10.18 | $10.90 | $11.75 | $12.77 |
| 9.5% | $8.27 | $8.72 | $9.24 | $9.83 | $10.53 |
| 10.5% | $7.27 | $7.61 | $8.00 | $8.43 | $8.93 |
| 11.5% | $6.47 | $6.74 | $7.03 | $7.36 | $7.74 |
