TGM's two-stage DCF values On Holding AG (ONON) between $16.68 and $23.92 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $20.10. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$30.85 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $16.68 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $20.10 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $23.92 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $35.66 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$30.85
Market-Implied Growth
+31.5%/yr
vs +45.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$16.68 – $23.92
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ONON (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $269.5M · 0.33B shares · net cash $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$20.10
-34.9% vs $30.85
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $30.85; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $23.06 | $24.15 | $25.39 | $26.82 | $28.49 |
| 10.5% | $20.66 | $21.48 | $22.41 | $23.46 | $24.65 |
| 11.5% | $18.75 | $19.39 | $20.10 | $20.89 | $21.78 |
| 12.5% | $17.19 | $17.70 | $18.26 | $18.88 | $19.56 |
| 13.5% | $15.90 | $16.31 | $16.76 | $17.25 | $17.79 |
