TGM's two-stage DCF values Omnicell, Inc. (OMCL) between $33.71 and $58.69 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $43.85. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$35.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.8%/yr | 10.0% | $33.71 |
| Base case | 4.8%/yr | 9.0% | $43.85 |
| Optimistic | 7.8%/yr | 8.0% | $58.69 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $22.42 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$35.20
Market-Implied Growth
-0.5%/yr
vs +4.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$33.71 – $58.69
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OMCL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $113.3M · 0.05B shares · net cash $28.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$43.85
+24.6% vs $35.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $35.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $53.56 | $57.96 | $63.32 | $70.02 | $78.63 |
| 8.0% | $45.28 | $48.28 | $51.81 | $56.05 | $61.22 |
| 9.0% | $39.22 | $41.37 | $43.85 | $46.73 | $50.14 |
| 10.0% | $34.59 | $36.19 | $38.01 | $40.09 | $42.48 |
| 11.0% | $30.93 | $32.17 | $33.55 | $35.10 | $36.86 |
