TGM's two-stage DCF values Okta, Inc. (OKTA) between $99.31 and $177.18 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $132.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$167.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.0% | $99.31 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.0% | $132.74 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.0% | $177.18 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $151.25 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$167.59
Market-Implied Growth
+24.0%/yr
vs +24.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$99.31 – $177.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OKTA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $609.0M · 0.17B shares · net cash $508.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$132.74
-20.8% vs $167.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $167.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $170 | $188 | $212 | $244 | $289 |
| 7.0% | $137 | $149 | $164 | $182 | $205 |
| 8.0% | $115 | $123 | $133 | $144 | $158 |
| 9.0% | $99.09 | $105 | $111 | $119 | $128 |
| 10.0% | $86.76 | $91.03 | $95.87 | $101 | $108 |
