TGM's two-stage DCF values Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) between $304.56 and $714.29 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $468.98. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$157.36 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.0%/yr | 9.6% | $304.56 |
| Base case | 8.0%/yr | 8.6% | $468.98 |
| Optimistic | 11.0%/yr | 7.6% | $714.29 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $472.02 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$157.36
Market-Implied Growth
-6.5%/yr
vs +8.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$304.56 – $714.29
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NXST (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $977.5M · 0.03B shares · net debt $6.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$468.98
+198.0% vs $157.36
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $157.36; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $634 | $712 | $809 | $933 | $1097 |
| 7.6% | $492 | $544 | $606 | $681 | $774 |
| 8.6% | $390 | $427 | $469 | $519 | $578 |
| 9.6% | $314 | $340 | $371 | $406 | $447 |
| 10.6% | $254 | $274 | $297 | $323 | $353 |
