TGM's two-stage DCF values News Corporation (NWS) between $17.77 and $29.61 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $21.90. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$31.65 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.7% | $17.77 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.7% | $21.90 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.7% | $29.61 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $18.88 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$31.65
Market-Implied Growth
+11.0%/yr
vs -0.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$17.77 – $29.61
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NWS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $734.0M · 0.55B shares · net cash $106.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$21.90
-30.8% vs $31.65
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $31.65; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $26.94 | $29.29 | $32.20 | $35.90 | $40.74 |
| 7.7% | $22.62 | $24.19 | $26.06 | $28.33 | $31.14 |
| 8.7% | $19.49 | $20.61 | $21.90 | $23.42 | $25.22 |
| 9.7% | $17.13 | $17.96 | $18.89 | $19.97 | $21.22 |
| 10.7% | $15.28 | $15.91 | $16.62 | $17.42 | $18.32 |
