TGM's two-stage DCF values NWPX Infrastructure, Inc. (NWPX) between $63.95 and $110.35 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $83.06. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$105.36 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.4%/yr | 10.6% | $63.95 |
| Base case | 14.4%/yr | 9.6% | $83.06 |
| Optimistic | 17.4%/yr | 8.6% | $110.35 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $56.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$105.36
Market-Implied Growth
+20.4%/yr
vs +14.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$63.95 – $110.35
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NWPX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $34.7M · 0.01B shares · net debt $9.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$83.06
-21.2% vs $105.36
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $105.36; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $101 | $109 | $118 | $130 | $144 |
| 8.6% | $85.95 | $91.42 | $97.78 | $105 | $114 |
| 9.6% | $74.45 | $78.47 | $83.06 | $88.33 | $94.45 |
| 10.6% | $65.51 | $68.57 | $72.00 | $75.88 | $80.30 |
| 11.6% | $58.37 | $60.76 | $63.41 | $66.36 | $69.66 |
