Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) between $57.23 and $110.74 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $79.65. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$43.55 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $57.23 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $79.65 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $110.74 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $94.98 | |
Current Price
$43.55
Market-Implied Growth
+4.3%/yr
vs +20.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$57.23 – $110.74
model output — not a price target
NVO DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NVO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $9.4B · 4.44B shares · net debt $15.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$143.67
+229.9% vs $43.55
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $43.55; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $203 | $227 | $260 | $306 | $374 |
| 6.5% | $156 | $170 | $187 | $209 | $239 |
| 7.5% | $124 | $133 | $144 | $157 | $173 |
| 8.5% | $102 | $108 | $115 | $123 | $133 |
| 9.5% | $86.15 | $90.24 | $94.91 | $100 | $107 |
About Novo Nordisk A/S
Novo Nordisk A/S is a global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the investigation, creation, manufacturing, and distribution of medicinal products across a vast international footprint. Its market presence extends throughout Europe, the Middle East, Africa, various parts of Asia (including Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan), and North America. The company's operations are structured into two principal business units: Diabetes and Obesity Care, and Rare Disease. The Diabetes and Obesity Care division delivers therapies for diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular ailments, and other emerging therapeutic areas. Meanwhile, the Rare Disease division concentrates on providing treatments for rare blood disorders, uncommon endocrine conditions, and hormone replacement solutions. In addition to its core pharmaceutical offerings, Novo Nordisk produces specialized medical equipment such as insulin pens, growth hormone pens, and injection needles. It also pioneers smart digital solutions for diabetes management, including advanced insulin pens and the Dose Check application, designed to guide insulin dosage. The company engages in strategic alliances, notably a partnership with UNICEF to combat childhood obesity and a collaboration with Valo Health, Inc. to discover and advance novel drug pipelines in the cardiometabolic space. Founded in 1923, Novo Nordisk A/S is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - General
- CEO
- Maziar Mike Doustdar