TGM's two-stage DCF values Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) between $57.24 and $110.75 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $79.66. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$47.08 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $57.24 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $79.66 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $110.75 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $85.85 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$47.08
Market-Implied Growth
+6.0%/yr
vs +20.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$57.24 – $110.75
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NVO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $9.4B · 4.44B shares · net debt $15.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$79.66
+69.2% vs $47.08
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $47.08; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $106 | $120 | $139 | $165 | $205 |
| 6.5% | $82.73 | $91.21 | $102 | $115 | $134 |
| 7.5% | $67.41 | $72.98 | $79.66 | $87.81 | $98.00 |
| 8.5% | $56.51 | $60.40 | $64.94 | $70.31 | $76.73 |
| 9.5% | $48.37 | $51.22 | $54.47 | $58.23 | $62.60 |
