TGM's two-stage DCF values Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) between $57.27 and $110.82 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $79.70. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$42.53 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $57.27 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $79.70 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $110.82 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $80.94 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$42.53
Market-Implied Growth
+3.8%/yr
vs +19.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$57.27 – $110.82
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NVO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $9.4B · 4.44B shares · net debt $15.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$79.70
+87.4% vs $42.53
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $42.53; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $106 | $120 | $139 | $165 | $205 |
| 6.5% | $82.78 | $91.26 | $102 | $115 | $134 |
| 7.5% | $67.45 | $73.02 | $79.70 | $87.87 | $98.06 |
| 8.5% | $56.54 | $60.44 | $64.98 | $70.35 | $76.78 |
| 9.5% | $48.40 | $51.25 | $54.51 | $58.26 | $62.64 |
