Why we don't show a single “fair value” for NVDA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($46.29) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $30.04 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $37.71 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $46.29 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $239.30 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$206.84
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$37.71
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NVDA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $43.9B · 24.22B shares · net cash $2.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$37.71
-81.8% vs $206.84
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $206.84; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $44.36 | $46.80 | $49.59 | $52.80 | $56.54 |
| 10.5% | $38.97 | $40.82 | $42.89 | $45.24 | $47.93 |
| 11.5% | $34.68 | $36.11 | $37.71 | $39.49 | $41.49 |
| 12.5% | $31.18 | $32.33 | $33.58 | $34.97 | $36.51 |
| 13.5% | $28.28 | $29.21 | $30.22 | $31.33 | $32.54 |
