NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)'s fair value in a range of $31.96 – $245.18 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $202.09 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $202.09, the market is pricing in roughly +30.5%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +85.5%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$202.09
Fair-Value Range
$31.96 – $245.18
Market-Implied Growth
+30.5%/yr
vs +85.5% 5Y actual
NVDA DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $47.1B · 24.22B shares · net cash $2.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$31.96
-84.2% vs $202.09
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $202.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $39.69 | $41.73 | $44.13 | $47.01 | $50.53 |
| 9.0% | $34.11 | $35.50 | $37.10 | $38.97 | $41.18 |
| 10.0% | $29.85 | $30.84 | $31.96 | $33.24 | $34.71 |
| 11.0% | $26.51 | $27.23 | $28.04 | $28.95 | $29.98 |
| 12.0% | $23.81 | $24.35 | $24.95 | $25.62 | $26.37 |
About NVIDIA Corporation
NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets. Its Graphics division encompasses GeForce GPUs, central to PC gaming and personal computing experiences, along with the GeForce NOW cloud gaming service and its supporting infrastructure, as well as dedicated solutions for various gaming platforms. For professional visualization, it provides Quadro and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstations, further offering vGPU software designed for cloud-centric visual and virtual computing, automotive platforms for in-vehicle infotainment, and the Omniverse software suite, facilitating 3D design and virtual world creation. The Compute & Networking segment is a cornerstone for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated data center platforms. It integrates Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions, delivers automotive AI Cockpit technologies, fosters autonomous driving development through strategic agreements, and offers comprehensive autonomous vehicle solutions. This segment also manufactures cryptocurrency mining processors, supplies Jetson platforms for robotics and other embedded applications, and offers enterprise AI software, including NVIDIA AI Enterprise. These diverse offerings find widespread application across the gaming, professional visualization, data center, and automotive sectors. NVIDIA distributes its portfolio through a broad ecosystem, engaging original equipment and device manufacturers, system integrators, add-in board makers, retail channels, software vendors, internet and cloud service providers, automotive companies (both manufacturers and tier-1 suppliers), mapping firms, nascent technology ventures, and other industry stakeholders. A notable strategic partnership exists with Kroger Co. Founded in 1993, NVIDIA Corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Santa Clara, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Jen-Hsun Huang