TGM's two-stage DCF values NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT) between $46.98 and $83.27 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $61.01. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$41.03 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.2%/yr | 8.6% | $46.98 |
| Base case | 4.2%/yr | 7.6% | $61.01 |
| Optimistic | 7.2%/yr | 6.6% | $83.27 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $12.27 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$41.03
Market-Implied Growth
-6.6%/yr
vs +7.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$46.98 – $83.27
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NTCT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $178.5M · 0.07B shares · net cash $576.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$61.01
+48.7% vs $41.03
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $41.03; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $76.41 | $84.66 | $95.55 | $111 | $133 |
| 6.6% | $62.84 | $67.85 | $74.07 | $82.01 | $92.50 |
| 7.6% | $53.72 | $57.04 | $61.01 | $65.83 | $71.83 |
| 8.6% | $47.18 | $49.52 | $52.24 | $55.44 | $59.27 |
| 9.6% | $42.25 | $43.98 | $45.94 | $48.20 | $50.82 |
