TGM's two-stage DCF values NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS) between $16.17 and $25.14 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $20.31. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$8.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -5.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.3% | $16.17 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.3% | $20.31 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.3% | $25.14 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $36.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$8.80
Market-Implied Growth
-5.3%/yr
vs +24.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$16.17 – $25.14
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NRDS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $56.9M · 0.07B shares · net cash $98.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$20.31
+130.8% vs $8.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $24.13 | $25.67 | $27.47 | $29.61 | $32.19 |
| 9.3% | $20.96 | $22.08 | $23.36 | $24.84 | $26.57 |
| 10.3% | $18.52 | $19.36 | $20.31 | $21.38 | $22.62 |
| 11.3% | $16.59 | $17.24 | $17.97 | $18.77 | $19.69 |
| 12.3% | $15.02 | $15.54 | $16.11 | $16.73 | $17.43 |
