Why we don't show a single “fair value” for NFLX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($33.51) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$71.71 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +38.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.9%/yr | 12.5% | $20.50 |
| Base case | 11.9%/yr | 11.5% | $26.03 |
| Optimistic | 14.9%/yr | 10.5% | $33.51 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $120.18 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$71.71
Market-Implied Growth
+38.6%/yr
vs +11.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$26.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NFLX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.9B · 4.16B shares · net debt $5.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$26.03
-63.7% vs $71.71
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $71.71; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $30.70 | $32.41 | $34.36 | $36.62 | $39.24 |
| 10.5% | $26.92 | $28.22 | $29.67 | $31.32 | $33.20 |
| 11.5% | $23.90 | $24.91 | $26.03 | $27.29 | $28.69 |
| 12.5% | $21.44 | $22.25 | $23.13 | $24.11 | $25.19 |
| 13.5% | $19.40 | $20.05 | $20.76 | $21.54 | $22.39 |
