Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)'s fair value in a range of $22.97 – $124.30 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $81.41 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $81.41, the market is pricing in roughly +21.7%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +37.0%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$81.41
Fair-Value Range
$22.97 – $124.30
Market-Implied Growth
+21.7%/yr
vs +37.0% 5Y actual
NFLX DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $6.2B · 4.21B shares · net debt $5.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$22.97
-71.8% vs $81.41
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $81.41; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $28.86 | $30.41 | $32.24 | $34.43 | $37.11 |
| 9.0% | $24.61 | $25.67 | $26.89 | $28.31 | $29.99 |
| 10.0% | $21.37 | $22.12 | $22.97 | $23.95 | $25.07 |
| 11.0% | $18.82 | $19.37 | $19.99 | $20.68 | $21.47 |
| 12.0% | $16.77 | $17.18 | $17.64 | $18.15 | $18.72 |
About Netflix, Inc.
Netflix, Inc. serves as a worldwide entertainment provider. Its comprehensive library features television series, motion pictures, documentaries, and mobile games, spanning numerous genres and languages. Members can effortlessly stream this content through a variety of internet-connected devices, including smart TVs, digital media players, cable boxes, and mobile phones. Furthermore, the company continues to offer a DVD-by-mail subscription service to its customers in the United States. With roughly 222 million paying subscribers distributed across 190 countries, Netflix was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- CEO
- Theodore A. Sarandos