TGM's two-stage DCF values Newmont Corporation (NEM) between $40.29 and $76.51 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $54.23. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$93.19 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.0%/yr | 8.5% | $40.29 |
| Base case | 9.0%/yr | 7.5% | $54.23 |
| Optimistic | 12.0%/yr | 6.5% | $76.51 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $219.14 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$93.19
Market-Implied Growth
+22.7%/yr
vs +9.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$40.29 – $76.51
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NEM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0B · 1.05B shares · net cash $2.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$54.23
-41.8% vs $93.19
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $93.19; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $69.99 | $78.55 | $89.95 | $106 | $130 |
| 6.5% | $56.07 | $61.20 | $67.61 | $75.85 | $86.82 |
| 7.5% | $46.80 | $50.18 | $54.23 | $59.17 | $65.34 |
| 8.5% | $40.19 | $42.56 | $45.31 | $48.57 | $52.47 |
| 9.5% | $35.24 | $36.98 | $38.96 | $41.24 | $43.90 |
