TGM's two-stage DCF values Niagen Bioscience Inc (NAGE) between $2.61 and $3.69 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $3.07. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$2.69 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.8%/yr | 12.5% | $2.61 |
| Base case | 15.8%/yr | 11.5% | $3.07 |
| Optimistic | 18.8%/yr | 10.5% | $3.69 |
Current Price
$2.69
Market-Implied Growth
+11.1%/yr
vs +15.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$2.61 – $3.69
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NAGE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $9.5M · 0.08B shares · net cash $63.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$3.07
+13.8% vs $2.69
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $2.69; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $3.46 | $3.61 | $3.77 | $3.96 | $4.19 |
| 10.5% | $3.14 | $3.25 | $3.38 | $3.52 | $3.68 |
| 11.5% | $2.89 | $2.97 | $3.07 | $3.17 | $3.29 |
| 12.5% | $2.68 | $2.75 | $2.82 | $2.90 | $3.00 |
| 13.5% | $2.51 | $2.56 | $2.62 | $2.69 | $2.76 |
