TGM's two-stage DCF values The Marzetti Company (MZTI) between $127.09 and $242.04 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $171.32. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$99.53 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.6%/yr | 8.5% | $127.09 |
| Base case | 5.6%/yr | 7.5% | $171.32 |
| Optimistic | 8.6%/yr | 6.5% | $242.04 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $163.83 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$99.53
Market-Implied Growth
-7.4%/yr
vs +5.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$127.09 – $242.04
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MZTI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $193.7M · 0.03B shares · net cash $161.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$171.32
+72.1% vs $99.53
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $99.53; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $221 | $248 | $283 | $333 | $408 |
| 6.5% | $177 | $193 | $213 | $239 | $274 |
| 7.5% | $148 | $159 | $171 | $187 | $206 |
| 8.5% | $127 | $135 | $143 | $154 | $166 |
| 9.5% | $112 | $117 | $123 | $131 | $139 |
