TGM's two-stage DCF values Minerals Technologies Inc. (MTX) between $21.16 and $50.88 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $33.45. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$72.08 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +17.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.4%/yr | 10.8% | $21.16 |
| Base case | 4.4%/yr | 9.8% | $33.45 |
| Optimistic | 7.4%/yr | 8.8% | $50.88 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $56.44 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$72.08
Market-Implied Growth
+17.7%/yr
vs +4.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$21.16 – $50.88
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MTX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $113.3M · 0.03B shares · net debt $683.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$33.45
-53.6% vs $72.08
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $72.08; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $44.51 | $49.15 | $54.65 | $61.29 | $69.47 |
| 8.8% | $35.25 | $38.55 | $42.36 | $46.83 | $52.14 |
| 9.8% | $28.22 | $30.67 | $33.45 | $36.63 | $40.31 |
| 10.8% | $22.72 | $24.59 | $26.69 | $29.05 | $31.73 |
| 11.8% | $18.28 | $19.75 | $21.38 | $23.19 | $25.22 |
