TGM's two-stage DCF values MTU Aero Engines AG (MTUAY) between $66.26 and $126.74 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $90.53. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$207.46 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.3%/yr | 9.6% | $66.26 |
| Base case | 15.3%/yr | 8.6% | $90.53 |
| Optimistic | 18.3%/yr | 7.6% | $126.74 |
Current Price
$207.46
Market-Implied Growth
+35.6%/yr
vs +15.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$66.26 – $126.74
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MTUAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $375.8M · 0.11B shares · net debt $931.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$90.53
-56.4% vs $207.46
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $207.46; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $116 | $127 | $142 | $161 | $186 |
| 7.6% | $94.05 | $102 | $111 | $123 | $137 |
| 8.6% | $78.61 | $84.12 | $90.53 | $98.08 | $107 |
| 9.6% | $67.02 | $71.08 | $75.69 | $81.00 | $87.18 |
| 10.6% | $58.02 | $61.10 | $64.56 | $68.46 | $72.91 |
