Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MTD
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($632.77) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$1,325.52 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +26.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.2% | $351.16 |
| Base case | 2.8%/yr | 10.2% | $461.09 |
| Optimistic | 5.8%/yr | 9.2% | $632.77 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $646.02 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1,325.52
Market-Implied Growth
+26.5%/yr
vs +2.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$461.09
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MTD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $854.6M · 0.02B shares · net debt $2.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$461.09
-65.2% vs $1325.52
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1325.52; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $568 | $611 | $661 | $722 | $795 |
| 9.2% | $479 | $510 | $546 | $588 | $637 |
| 10.2% | $411 | $435 | $461 | $491 | $526 |
| 11.2% | $357 | $375 | $395 | $418 | $444 |
| 12.2% | $313 | $327 | $343 | $361 | $381 |
