TGM's two-stage DCF values Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) between $158.32 and $326.28 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $225.51. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$474.13 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +26.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.8%/yr | 9.5% | $158.32 |
| Base case | 9.8%/yr | 8.5% | $225.51 |
| Optimistic | 12.8%/yr | 7.5% | $326.28 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $391.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$474.13
Market-Implied Growth
+26.1%/yr
vs +10.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$158.32 – $326.28
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MSI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0B · 0.17B shares · net debt $8.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$225.51
-52.4% vs $474.13
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $474.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $294 | $327 | $368 | $420 | $490 |
| 7.5% | $235 | $257 | $282 | $314 | $353 |
| 8.5% | $193 | $208 | $226 | $246 | $271 |
| 9.5% | $161 | $172 | $185 | $200 | $216 |
| 10.5% | $137 | $145 | $155 | $165 | $177 |