TGM's two-stage DCF values Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) between $163.42 and $335.66 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $232.32. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$434.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.4%/yr | 9.5% | $163.42 |
| Base case | 10.4%/yr | 8.5% | $232.32 |
| Optimistic | 13.4%/yr | 7.5% | $335.66 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $440.66 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$434.20
Market-Implied Growth
+24.0%/yr
vs +11.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$163.42 – $335.66
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MSI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.0B · 0.17B shares · net debt $8.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$232.32
-46.5% vs $434.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $434.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $303 | $337 | $379 | $433 | $505 |
| 7.5% | $242 | $264 | $291 | $323 | $364 |
| 8.5% | $199 | $214 | $232 | $254 | $279 |
| 9.5% | $166 | $178 | $191 | $206 | $223 |
| 10.5% | $141 | $150 | $159 | $170 | $183 |
