TGM's two-stage DCF values McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) between $25.99 and $59.29 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $37.26. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$50.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $25.99 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $37.26 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $59.29 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $66.00 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$50.90
Market-Implied Growth
+7.5%/yr
vs -1.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$25.99 – $59.29
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MKC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $693.7M · 0.27B shares · net debt $3.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$37.26
-26.8% vs $50.90
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $50.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $52.44 | $60.69 | $71.68 | $87.05 | $110 |
| 6.5% | $39.02 | $43.98 | $50.16 | $58.11 | $68.70 |
| 7.5% | $30.08 | $33.34 | $37.26 | $42.03 | $47.99 |
| 8.5% | $23.69 | $25.98 | $28.65 | $31.80 | $35.57 |
| 9.5% | $18.90 | $20.58 | $22.50 | $24.71 | $27.28 |
