Why we don't show a single “fair value” for METCB
Even the conservative scenario ($12.73) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$4.42 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -13.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.8% | $12.73 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.8% | $16.47 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.8% | $20.93 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1.05 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$4.42
Market-Implied Growth
-13.5%/yr
vs +19.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$16.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for METCB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $54.3M · 0.09B shares · net debt $11.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$16.47
+272.6% vs $4.42
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.42; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $20.04 | $21.53 | $23.30 | $25.45 | $28.08 |
| 8.8% | $17.05 | $18.11 | $19.34 | $20.78 | $22.49 |
| 9.8% | $14.79 | $15.58 | $16.47 | $17.49 | $18.68 |
| 10.8% | $13.03 | $13.63 | $14.30 | $15.06 | $15.92 |
| 11.8% | $11.62 | $12.09 | $12.61 | $13.19 | $13.83 |
