Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) between $346.66 and $554.99 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $442.10. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$457.09 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.0% | $346.66 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.0% | $442.10 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.0% | $554.99 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $433.81 | |
Current Price
$457.09
Market-Implied Growth
+18.9%/yr
vs +25.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$346.66 – $554.99
model output — not a price target
MEDP DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MEDP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $484.5M · 0.03B shares · net cash $360.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$735.14
+60.8% vs $457.09
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $457.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $940 | $997 | $1064 | $1145 | $1244 |
| 9.0% | $789 | $828 | $873 | $926 | $988 |
| 10.0% | $676 | $704 | $735 | $771 | $812 |
| 11.0% | $588 | $608 | $631 | $656 | $685 |
| 12.0% | $518 | $533 | $550 | $568 | $589 |
About Medpace Holdings, Inc.
Medpace Holdings, Inc., founded in Cincinnati, Ohio, in 1992, functions as a contract research organization (CRO) delivering clinical development and research services. The company assists pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device clients throughout North America, Europe, and Asia. Its comprehensive suite of offerings covers the entire product lifecycle, from initial Phase I trials through to Phase IV post-market surveillance. Medpace's services include designing development programs, coordinating central laboratory functions, managing projects, navigating regulatory processes, overseeing clinical trials, handling data management and analytics, ensuring pharmacovigilance, aiding with new drug application submissions, and providing ongoing post-marketing clinical support. Furthermore, the company offers specialized bio-analytical laboratory testing, conducts clinical human pharmacology studies, provides imaging services, and delivers expert electrocardiography (ECG) reading for clinical research.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Diagnostics & Research
- CEO
- August James Troendle