TGM's two-stage DCF values Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) between $363.60 and $587.04 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $465.46. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$615.18 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.8% | $363.60 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.8% | $465.46 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.8% | $587.04 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $401.33 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$615.18
Market-Implied Growth
+25.5%/yr
vs +23.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$363.60 – $587.04
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MEDP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $484.5M · 0.03B shares · net cash $360.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$465.46
-24.3% vs $615.18
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $615.18; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $563 | $603 | $652 | $710 | $782 |
| 8.8% | $481 | $510 | $544 | $583 | $629 |
| 9.8% | $420 | $441 | $465 | $493 | $526 |
| 10.8% | $372 | $388 | $406 | $427 | $450 |
| 11.8% | $333 | $346 | $360 | $376 | $394 |
