TGM's two-stage DCF values Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) between $27.21 and $67.54 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $42.72. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$61.47 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.1%/yr | 8.5% | $27.21 |
| Base case | 4.1%/yr | 7.5% | $42.72 |
| Optimistic | 7.1%/yr | 6.5% | $67.54 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $111.69 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$61.47
Market-Implied Growth
+10.7%/yr
vs +0.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$27.21 – $67.54
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MDLZ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.4B · 1.28B shares · net debt $19.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$42.72
-30.5% vs $61.47
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $61.47; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $59.97 | $69.33 | $81.80 | $99.25 | $125 |
| 6.5% | $44.73 | $50.36 | $57.38 | $66.39 | $78.41 |
| 7.5% | $34.58 | $38.29 | $42.72 | $48.14 | $54.91 |
| 8.5% | $27.34 | $29.94 | $32.96 | $36.53 | $40.81 |
| 9.5% | $21.91 | $23.82 | $25.99 | $28.49 | $31.41 |
