Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) between $34.02 and $80.96 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $52.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$61.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.7%/yr | 8.5% | $34.02 |
| Base case | 7.7%/yr | 7.5% | $52.08 |
| Optimistic | 10.7%/yr | 6.5% | $80.96 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $121.58 | |
Current Price
$61.20
Market-Implied Growth
+10.7%/yr
vs +7.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$34.02 – $80.96
model output — not a price target
MDLZ DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MDLZ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.4B · 1.28B shares · net debt $19.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$66.24
+8.2% vs $61.20
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $61.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $96.32 | $109 | $125 | $148 | $182 |
| 6.5% | $72.45 | $79.42 | $88.13 | $99.33 | $114 |
| 7.5% | $56.63 | $61.00 | $66.24 | $72.65 | $80.65 |
| 8.5% | $45.39 | $48.31 | $51.71 | $55.73 | $60.55 |
| 9.5% | $37.02 | $39.06 | $41.38 | $44.07 | $47.20 |
About Mondelez International, Inc.
Mondelez International, Inc. operates as a prominent global entity in the snack and beverage sector, focusing on the production, promotion, and distribution of a wide array of food items. Its extensive reach spans multiple continents, including North America, Latin America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The company's diverse product portfolio encompasses biscuits (such as cookies, crackers, and various savory snacks), chocolates, chewing gums, candies, as well as selection of cheese and general grocery products, and powdered beverage mixes. Among its well-recognized brands are Cadbury, Milka, and Toblerone chocolates; Oreo, belVita, and LU biscuits; Halls candies; Trident chewing gum; and Tang powdered beverages. Mondelez distributes its offerings through a comprehensive network of retail outlets, catering to a broad spectrum of clients including large supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, convenience stores, petrol stations, pharmacies, discount stores, and other food retailers. This complex distribution system leverages direct store delivery, proprietary and external warehousing solutions, third-party distributors, independent sales agents, and digital e-commerce platforms. Established in 2000, the company was initially known as Kraft Foods Inc. before officially changing its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Chicago, Illinois.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Food Confectioners
- CEO
- Dirk Van de Put