TGM's two-stage DCF values McKesson Corporation (MCK) between $841.49 and $1,663.58 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $1,157.86. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$825.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.9%/yr | 8.5% | $841.49 |
| Base case | 9.9%/yr | 7.5% | $1,157.86 |
| Optimistic | 12.9%/yr | 6.5% | $1,663.58 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 3, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1,224.87 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$825.00
Market-Implied Growth
+2.1%/yr
vs +8.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$841.49 – $1,663.58
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MCK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.9B · 0.12B shares · net debt $2.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$1157.86
+40.3% vs $825.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $825.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $1517 | $1712 | $1971 | $2334 | $2879 |
| 6.5% | $1200 | $1317 | $1463 | $1650 | $1900 |
| 7.5% | $989 | $1066 | $1158 | $1270 | $1411 |
| 8.5% | $838 | $892 | $955 | $1029 | $1118 |
| 9.5% | $726 | $765 | $810 | $862 | $923 |
