TGM's two-stage DCF values McKesson Corporation (MCK) between $923.52 and $1,825.99 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $1,270.83. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$879.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.1%/yr | 8.5% | $923.52 |
| Base case | 12.1%/yr | 7.5% | $1,270.83 |
| Optimistic | 15.1%/yr | 6.5% | $1,825.99 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $1,131.98 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$879.57
Market-Implied Growth
+3.5%/yr
vs +13.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$923.52 – $1,825.99
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MCK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.9B · 0.12B shares · net debt $2.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$1270.83
+44.5% vs $879.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $879.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $1668 | $1883 | $2170 | $2572 | $3174 |
| 6.5% | $1317 | $1446 | $1608 | $1815 | $2091 |
| 7.5% | $1084 | $1169 | $1271 | $1395 | $1550 |
| 8.5% | $918 | $977 | $1047 | $1128 | $1227 |
| 9.5% | $794 | $837 | $887 | $944 | $1011 |
