Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MCHP
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($35.71) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$78.86 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $20.69 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $26.08 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $35.71 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $11.48 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$78.86
Market-Implied Growth
+25.7%/yr
vs -13.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$26.08
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MCHP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.54B shares · net debt $5.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$26.08
-66.9% vs $78.86
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $78.86; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $31.80 | $33.88 | $36.26 | $39.00 | $42.20 |
| 10.5% | $27.17 | $28.76 | $30.54 | $32.55 | $34.85 |
| 11.5% | $23.47 | $24.71 | $26.08 | $27.61 | $29.33 |
| 12.5% | $20.45 | $21.44 | $22.52 | $23.72 | $25.04 |
| 13.5% | $17.93 | $18.73 | $19.60 | $20.56 | $21.61 |
