TGM's two-stage DCF values Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU) between $16.11 and $28.24 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $20.41. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$23.43 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.8% | $16.11 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.8% | $20.41 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.8% | $28.24 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $8.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$23.43
Market-Implied Growth
+4.8%/yr
vs -0.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$16.11 – $28.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MBUU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $35.7M · 0.02B shares · net debt $90.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$20.41
-12.9% vs $23.43
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $23.43; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $25.32 | $27.37 | $29.82 | $32.76 | $36.39 |
| 8.8% | $21.21 | $22.67 | $24.37 | $26.35 | $28.70 |
| 9.8% | $18.09 | $19.17 | $20.41 | $21.82 | $23.46 |
| 10.8% | $15.64 | $16.47 | $17.40 | $18.45 | $19.64 |
| 11.8% | $13.66 | $14.32 | $15.04 | $15.85 | $16.75 |
