TGM's two-stage DCF values Lantronix, Inc. (LTRX) between $3.61 and $4.97 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $4.19. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$7.38 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.1%/yr | 12.5% | $3.61 |
| Base case | 11.1%/yr | 11.5% | $4.19 |
| Optimistic | 14.1%/yr | 10.5% | $4.97 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $0.91 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$7.38
Market-Implied Growth
+31.2%/yr
vs +21.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$3.61 – $4.97
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LTRX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.0M · 0.04B shares · net cash $58.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$4.19
-43.3% vs $7.38
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $7.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $4.67 | $4.85 | $5.06 | $5.29 | $5.56 |
| 10.5% | $4.28 | $4.41 | $4.57 | $4.74 | $4.93 |
| 11.5% | $3.96 | $4.07 | $4.19 | $4.32 | $4.46 |
| 12.5% | $3.71 | $3.79 | $3.88 | $3.98 | $4.10 |
| 13.5% | $3.49 | $3.56 | $3.64 | $3.72 | $3.81 |
