TGM's two-stage DCF values Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) between $130.68 and $214.11 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $159.73. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$169.05 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.6% | $130.68 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.6% | $159.73 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.6% | $214.11 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $92.15 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$169.05
Market-Implied Growth
+3.4%/yr
vs -4.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$130.68 – $214.11
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LSTR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $311.8M · 0.03B shares · net cash $291.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$159.73
-5.5% vs $169.05
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $169.05; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $195 | $212 | $233 | $260 | $295 |
| 7.6% | $165 | $176 | $189 | $206 | $226 |
| 8.6% | $143 | $151 | $160 | $171 | $183 |
| 9.6% | $126 | $132 | $139 | $146 | $155 |
| 10.6% | $113 | $118 | $123 | $128 | $135 |
