Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LRCX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($80.90) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$316.38 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +57.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.7%/yr | 12.5% | $51.19 |
| Base case | 11.7%/yr | 11.5% | $63.82 |
| Optimistic | 14.7%/yr | 10.5% | $80.90 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $60.83 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$316.38
Market-Implied Growth
+57.2%/yr
vs +12.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$63.82
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LRCX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.8B · 1.25B shares · net cash $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$63.82
-79.8% vs $316.38
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $316.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $74.47 | $78.37 | $82.82 | $87.95 | $93.93 |
| 10.5% | $65.84 | $68.80 | $72.12 | $75.88 | $80.18 |
| 11.5% | $58.96 | $61.27 | $63.82 | $66.68 | $69.88 |
| 12.5% | $53.35 | $55.19 | $57.20 | $59.43 | $61.90 |
| 13.5% | $48.69 | $50.18 | $51.80 | $53.58 | $55.52 |
