Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LRCX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($71.81) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$305.21 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +58.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.3%/yr | 12.5% | $45.59 |
| Base case | 10.3%/yr | 11.5% | $56.74 |
| Optimistic | 13.3%/yr | 10.5% | $71.81 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $46.99 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$305.21
Market-Implied Growth
+58.1%/yr
vs +19.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$56.74
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LRCX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.5B · 1.25B shares · net cash $1.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$56.74
-81.4% vs $305.21
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $305.21; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $66.07 | $69.49 | $73.40 | $77.89 | $83.13 |
| 10.5% | $58.51 | $61.10 | $64.02 | $67.32 | $71.08 |
| 11.5% | $52.48 | $54.50 | $56.74 | $59.24 | $62.05 |
| 12.5% | $47.55 | $49.16 | $50.93 | $52.88 | $55.05 |
| 13.5% | $43.46 | $44.77 | $46.19 | $47.75 | $49.46 |
