TGM's two-stage DCF values Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) between $106.22 and $229.92 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $149.13. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$207.64 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.4% | $106.22 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.4% | $149.13 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.4% | $229.92 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $160.94 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$207.64
Market-Implied Growth
+7.7%/yr
vs -3.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$106.22 – $229.92
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LOW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.2B · 0.56B shares · net debt $38.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$149.13
-28.2% vs $207.64
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $207.64; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $203 | $228 | $261 | $303 | $359 |
| 7.4% | $156 | $173 | $194 | $219 | $250 |
| 8.4% | $124 | $135 | $149 | $165 | $185 |
| 9.4% | $99.07 | $108 | $118 | $129 | $142 |
| 10.4% | $80.07 | $86.60 | $93.94 | $102 | $112 |
