Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LIND
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $0.65 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $2.40 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $4.35 |
Current Price
$36.00
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$2.40
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LIND (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $27.2M · 0.07B shares · net debt $406.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$2.40
-93.3% vs $36.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $36.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $3.91 | $4.47 | $5.11 | $5.84 | $6.69 |
| 10.5% | $2.68 | $3.10 | $3.58 | $4.12 | $4.73 |
| 11.5% | $1.70 | $2.03 | $2.40 | $2.80 | $3.26 |
| 12.5% | $0.91 | $1.17 | $1.45 | $1.77 | $2.12 |
| 13.5% | $0.25 | $0.46 | $0.69 | $0.94 | $1.22 |
