Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LBTYA
Even the conservative scenario ($31.55) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$10.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -14.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.8% | $31.55 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.8% | $45.87 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.8% | $73.47 |
Current Price
$10.75
Market-Implied Growth
-14.3%/yr
vs -17.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$45.87
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LBTYA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.33B shares · net debt $7.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$45.87
+326.7% vs $10.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $10.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $64.63 | $74.39 | $87.11 | $104 | $129 |
| 6.8% | $48.18 | $54.24 | $61.70 | $71.11 | $83.36 |
| 7.8% | $36.96 | $41.04 | $45.87 | $51.71 | $58.90 |
| 8.8% | $28.81 | $31.71 | $35.07 | $39.00 | $43.67 |
| 9.8% | $22.63 | $24.78 | $27.23 | $30.03 | $33.27 |
