TGM's two-stage DCF values Kohl's Corporation (KSS) between $20.11 and $37.02 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $26.17. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$19.50 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.2% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.2% | $20.11 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.2% | $26.17 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.2% | $37.02 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 31, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $88.57 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$19.50
Market-Implied Growth
-2.6%/yr
vs -2.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$20.11 – $37.02
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KSS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $386.5M · 0.11B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$26.17
+34.2% vs $19.50
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $19.50; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $32.67 | $35.09 | $37.88 | $41.10 | $44.89 |
| 10.2% | $27.38 | $29.20 | $31.26 | $33.60 | $36.29 |
| 11.2% | $23.18 | $24.60 | $26.17 | $27.93 | $29.92 |
| 12.2% | $19.77 | $20.89 | $22.13 | $23.49 | $25.01 |
| 13.2% | $16.94 | $17.85 | $18.84 | $19.92 | $21.12 |
