TGM's two-stage DCF values Kohl's Corporation (KSS) between $20.80 and $38.38 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $27.09. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$17.16 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -5.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.0% | $20.80 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.0% | $27.09 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.0% | $38.38 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $82.83 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$17.16
Market-Implied Growth
-5.0%/yr
vs -3.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$20.80 – $38.38
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KSS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $386.5M · 0.11B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$27.09
+57.9% vs $17.16
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $17.16; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $33.89 | $36.47 | $39.44 | $42.90 | $46.99 |
| 10.0% | $28.34 | $30.26 | $32.44 | $34.93 | $37.80 |
| 11.0% | $23.95 | $25.44 | $27.09 | $28.95 | $31.06 |
| 12.0% | $20.40 | $21.57 | $22.87 | $24.30 | $25.90 |
| 13.0% | $17.47 | $18.41 | $19.45 | $20.58 | $21.83 |
