Why we don't show a single “fair value” for KNSA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($15.76) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $9.37 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $12.05 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $15.76 |
Current Price
$74.09
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$12.05
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KNSA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $19.3M · 0.08B shares · net cash $162.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$12.05
-83.7% vs $74.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $74.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $15.17 | $16.86 | $19.11 | $22.26 | $26.98 |
| 6.5% | $12.41 | $13.43 | $14.69 | $16.32 | $18.48 |
| 7.5% | $10.59 | $11.25 | $12.05 | $13.02 | $14.24 |
| 8.5% | $9.28 | $9.75 | $10.29 | $10.93 | $11.70 |
| 9.5% | $8.31 | $8.65 | $9.04 | $9.49 | $10.01 |
