Why we don't show a single “fair value” for KNDI
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Kandi Technologies Group, Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $2.38 |
| Base case | 2.6%/yr | 7.5% | $2.64 |
| Optimistic | 5.6%/yr | 6.5% | $3.11 |
Current Price
$0.65
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$2.64
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KNDI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.5M · 0.08B shares · net cash $129.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$2.64
+307.9% vs $0.65
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $0.65; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $2.96 | $3.14 | $3.37 | $3.70 | $4.19 |
| 6.5% | $2.68 | $2.78 | $2.92 | $3.08 | $3.31 |
| 7.5% | $2.49 | $2.56 | $2.64 | $2.74 | $2.87 |
| 8.5% | $2.35 | $2.40 | $2.46 | $2.53 | $2.61 |
| 9.5% | $2.25 | $2.29 | $2.33 | $2.38 | $2.43 |
