TGM's two-stage DCF values Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) between $8.72 and $29.63 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $16.47. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$30.85 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $8.72 |
| Base case | 3.0%/yr | 7.5% | $16.47 |
| Optimistic | 6.0%/yr | 6.5% | $29.63 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $50.82 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$30.85
Market-Implied Growth
+12.0%/yr
vs +2.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$8.72 – $29.63
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KMI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.3B · 2.23B shares · net debt $32.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$16.47
-46.6% vs $30.85
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $30.85; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $25.58 | $30.52 | $37.11 | $46.33 | $60.15 |
| 6.5% | $17.53 | $20.50 | $24.21 | $28.97 | $35.32 |
| 7.5% | $12.17 | $14.12 | $16.47 | $19.33 | $22.91 |
| 8.5% | $8.34 | $9.71 | $11.31 | $13.19 | $15.46 |
| 9.5% | $5.47 | $6.47 | $7.62 | $8.95 | $10.49 |
