TGM's two-stage DCF values Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB) between $83.79 and $168.74 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $112.53. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$111.28 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $83.79 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $112.53 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $168.74 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 27, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $150.90 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$111.28
Market-Implied Growth
+1.8%/yr
vs -8.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$83.79 – $168.74
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KMB (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.2B · 0.33B shares · net debt $6.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$112.53
+1.1% vs $111.28
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $111.28; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $151 | $172 | $200 | $240 | $298 |
| 6.5% | $117 | $130 | $145 | $166 | $193 |
| 7.5% | $94.23 | $103 | $113 | $125 | $140 |
| 8.5% | $77.93 | $83.77 | $90.58 | $98.61 | $108 |
| 9.5% | $65.71 | $70.00 | $74.89 | $80.53 | $87.09 |
