Why we don't show a single “fair value” for KLIC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($34.63) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$99.09 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +38.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $24.54 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $28.16 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $34.63 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 14, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $13.35 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$99.09
Market-Implied Growth
+38.8%/yr
vs -4.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$28.16
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KLIC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $112.7M · 0.05B shares · net cash $215.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$28.16
-71.6% vs $99.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $99.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $32.00 | $33.40 | $35.00 | $36.85 | $39.00 |
| 10.5% | $28.89 | $29.96 | $31.16 | $32.51 | $34.05 |
| 11.5% | $26.41 | $27.24 | $28.16 | $29.19 | $30.35 |
| 12.5% | $24.37 | $25.04 | $25.77 | $26.57 | $27.46 |
| 13.5% | $22.68 | $23.22 | $23.81 | $24.45 | $25.15 |
