Why we don't show a single “fair value” for KLAC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($60.41) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$184.89 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +51.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.2%/yr | 12.3% | $36.32 |
| Base case | 14.2%/yr | 11.3% | $46.54 |
| Optimistic | 17.2%/yr | 10.3% | $60.41 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $57.46 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$184.89
Market-Implied Growth
+51.2%/yr
vs +14.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$46.54
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KLAC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.5B · 1.31B shares · net debt $4.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$46.54
-74.8% vs $184.89
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $184.89; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | $55.33 | $58.60 | $62.35 | $66.69 | $71.77 |
| 10.3% | $48.18 | $50.64 | $53.42 | $56.57 | $60.18 |
| 11.3% | $42.50 | $44.41 | $46.54 | $48.91 | $51.59 |
| 12.3% | $37.90 | $39.41 | $41.08 | $42.92 | $44.97 |
| 13.3% | $34.09 | $35.31 | $36.65 | $38.11 | $39.72 |
