Why we don't show a single “fair value” for KLAC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($58.77) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$210.52 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +57.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.4%/yr | 12.1% | $35.17 |
| Base case | 15.4%/yr | 11.1% | $45.15 |
| Optimistic | 18.4%/yr | 10.1% | $58.77 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $62.30 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$210.52
Market-Implied Growth
+57.3%/yr
vs +15.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$45.15
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KLAC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.2B · 1.31B shares · net debt $3.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$45.15
-78.6% vs $210.52
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $210.52; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $53.88 | $57.18 | $60.97 | $65.38 | $70.57 |
| 10.1% | $46.75 | $49.22 | $52.01 | $55.18 | $58.84 |
| 11.1% | $41.13 | $43.03 | $45.15 | $47.53 | $50.21 |
| 12.1% | $36.58 | $38.09 | $39.74 | $41.58 | $43.62 |
| 13.1% | $32.84 | $34.05 | $35.37 | $36.82 | $38.42 |
