TGM's two-stage DCF values Kelly Services, Inc. (KELYA) between $13.02 and $23.42 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $16.64. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$15.81 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.5% | $13.02 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.5% | $16.64 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.5% | $23.42 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $29.51 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$15.81
Market-Implied Growth
+0.9%/yr
vs -1.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$13.02 – $23.42
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KELYA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $38.6M · 0.03B shares · net debt $68.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$16.64
+5.2% vs $15.81
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $15.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $21.11 | $23.25 | $25.92 | $29.35 | $33.92 |
| 7.5% | $17.25 | $18.66 | $20.35 | $22.41 | $24.98 |
| 8.5% | $14.50 | $15.48 | $16.64 | $17.99 | $19.62 |
| 9.5% | $12.43 | $13.15 | $13.98 | $14.94 | $16.05 |
| 10.5% | $10.82 | $11.37 | $11.99 | $12.69 | $13.49 |
