Why we don't show a single “fair value” for JLHL
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Julong Holding Limited right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $0.94 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $1.09 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $1.26 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $0.57 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$4.20
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1.09
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JLHL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $720615 · 0.02B shares · net cash $7.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$1.09
-74.0% vs $4.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $1.22 | $1.27 | $1.32 | $1.39 | $1.46 |
| 10.5% | $1.12 | $1.15 | $1.19 | $1.24 | $1.29 |
| 11.5% | $1.03 | $1.06 | $1.09 | $1.13 | $1.16 |
| 12.5% | $0.96 | $0.99 | $1.01 | $1.04 | $1.07 |
| 13.5% | $0.91 | $0.93 | $0.95 | $0.97 | $0.99 |
