Why we don't show a single “fair value” for JD
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor JD.com, Inc. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.7%/yr | 8.5% | $78.55 |
| Base case | 7.7%/yr | 7.5% | $104.83 |
| Optimistic | 10.7%/yr | 6.5% | $146.84 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $61.07 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$27.26
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$104.83
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.4B · 1.40B shares · net cash $9.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$104.83
+284.6% vs $27.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $27.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $134 | $150 | $172 | $202 | $247 |
| 6.5% | $108 | $118 | $130 | $145 | $166 |
| 7.5% | $90.88 | $97.23 | $105 | $114 | $126 |
| 8.5% | $78.48 | $82.92 | $88.10 | $94.21 | $102 |
| 9.5% | $69.19 | $72.44 | $76.16 | $80.45 | $85.44 |
