TGM's two-stage DCF values Janus International Group, Inc. (JBI) between $7.12 and $12.96 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $9.59. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$4.21 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -8.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.1%/yr | 12.3% | $7.12 |
| Base case | 6.1%/yr | 11.3% | $9.59 |
| Optimistic | 9.1%/yr | 10.3% | $12.96 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $13.83 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$4.21
Market-Implied Growth
-8.4%/yr
vs +4.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7.12 – $12.96
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JBI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $124.0M · 0.14B shares · net debt $356.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.59
+127.9% vs $4.21
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $4.21; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | $11.64 | $12.41 | $13.28 | $14.29 | $15.47 |
| 10.3% | $9.98 | $10.55 | $11.20 | $11.93 | $12.77 |
| 11.3% | $8.65 | $9.10 | $9.59 | $10.15 | $10.77 |
| 12.3% | $7.57 | $7.93 | $8.32 | $8.75 | $9.23 |
| 13.3% | $6.68 | $6.97 | $7.28 | $7.62 | $8.00 |
