J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for JBHT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($60.51) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$271.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +45.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.0%/yr | 11.6% | $29.99 |
| Base case | 4.0%/yr | 10.6% | $42.80 |
| Optimistic | 7.0%/yr | 9.6% | $60.51 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $56.01 | |
Current Price
$271.22
Market-Implied Growth
+45.8%/yr
vs +13.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$42.80
model output — not a price target
JBHT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JBHT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $426.9M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$45.69
-83.2% vs $271.22
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $271.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $59.88 | $63.29 | $67.25 | $71.92 | $77.50 |
| 9.6% | $49.83 | $52.22 | $54.94 | $58.07 | $61.72 |
| 10.6% | $42.01 | $43.74 | $45.69 | $47.88 | $50.39 |
| 11.6% | $35.76 | $37.05 | $38.48 | $40.07 | $41.87 |
| 12.6% | $30.66 | $31.64 | $32.71 | $33.90 | $35.22 |
About J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
Operating across North America, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. specializes in ground transportation, last-mile delivery, and comprehensive logistics solutions. Its operations are structured into five distinct divisions: Intermodal (JBI), Dedicated Contract Services (DCS), Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS), Final Mile Services (FMS), and Truckload (JBT). The Intermodal (JBI) division facilitates freight movement using multiple transport modes. This segment boasts a substantial asset base, including 104,973 company-owned trailers, a self-maintained fleet of 85,649 chassis, 5,612 company-owned tractors, 582 independent contractor vehicles, and a workforce of 6,943 company drivers. Dedicated Contract Services (DCS) focuses on engineering, implementing, and managing bespoke supply chain strategies for diverse transportation requirements. As of December 31, 2021, its fleet comprised 11,139 company-owned trucks, 544 client-owned trucks, and 6 contractor trucks, complemented by 21,069 company-owned trailers and 7,753 customer-owned trailers. Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) delivers comprehensive freight brokerage and logistics services. Offerings span specialized transport options such as flatbed, temperature-controlled, expedited, and less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping, alongside standard dry-van and intermodal modalities. This segment also features an online platform connecting various transportation options and offers outsourcing solutions for clients' logistics needs. Final Mile Services (FMS) handles last-stage delivery operations. This is supported by 1,272 company-owned trucks, 272 customer-supplied trucks, 19 independent contractor trucks, 1,036 company-owned trailers, and 185 client-owned trailers. The Truckload (JBT) segment specializes in over-the-road dry-van freight transport, deploying 734 company-owned tractors and 11,172 company-owned trailers. Across its segments, the company facilitates the movement of a diverse array of goods, including consumer products (e.g., general merchandise, specialty items, appliances, food and beverages, soaps and cosmetics, electronics), industrial materials (e.g., forest and paper products, building materials, automotive parts), agricultural products, and chemicals. Established in 1961, the corporation maintains its headquarters in Lowell, Arkansas.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Integrated Freight & Logistics
- CEO
- Shelley Simpson